XBradTC

Russia so far has tried very hard to make its incursion into Crimea as non-violent as possible. That’s a pretty smart move. The Russians certainly aren’t universally loved there, but it is a far smarter approach than making an explicitly punitive expedition. As it is, Putin has presented to the West a fait acompli in Crimea. We can bluster all we want, but the US, the EU, and NATO aren’t going to go to war over the Crimea. For that matter, the heart of the EU isn’t even going to try economic sanctions over the matter.

So, does Russia simply hold what it has, and have a “referendum” in a month or two, or does it expand its reach.

Galrahn notes that as a practical matter, Russia can seize a line from Odessa to Kharkov with little or no effective resistance. That’s territory Russia would rather have effective control over than actually physically occupy.

Will Russia sit tight? Will they seize eastern Ukraine, and then negotiate from there? What say you?